Is Santorum Still a Challenge? Super Tuesday will tell.

After the Iowa caucus, I wrote a piece comparing Rick Santorum's almost win (which turned out to be a clear win) to candidate Barack Obama's caucus success there in 2008. Santorum is to Mitt Romney what Barack Obama was to Hillary Clinton. The Lefts anti-war sentiment and her refusal to apologize for voting to authorize the invasion of Iraq was Clinton's Achilles heel. Obama won in Iowa and rode the peace wave to his party's nomination. Similar to Hillary, Romney is hamstrung by the statewide healthcare plan he adopted as governor of Massachusetts and other past stances he has taken contrary to Conservative movement values. The activist wing of the Left did not trust Clinton. The conservative wing of the Right does not trust Romney. Santorum has the best rap and record for the Conservative vote and current temperament. The Iowa caucus was a test for him to prove he has what it takes to win. Santorum now rides the wave of conservative activism fueled by the Tea Party.

I didn't think that Santorum had enough time to do well in New Hampshire, but that he could pick up momentum to have a chance in South Carolina. But it turned out that Newt Gingrich's combative and rousing debate performances appealed to the fighting mood of Conservatives in the state that started the civil war.

Click here for video of question and answer.

Gingrich surged ahead in South Carolina after the January 16 debate when Juan Williams brought  the issue of race to center stage by asking Gingrich if Americans in general, and Blacks in particular, would find his comments about food stamps and working as a janitors to learn how to work insulting. Gingrich’s answer, which a supporter later described as putting Juan (a Black man) in his place, catapulted Newt to the front of the race with Romney second followed by Santorum and Ron Paul. If you have been keeping up you know that the primary wars went on to Florida where Newt lost to Romney 46.4% to 31.9%. Santorum followed far behind with only 13.3%. Then came the big day for Rick. He won in Missouri, Minnesota and Colorado. Now his national numbers among likely Republican voters has surpassed Romney's. The next big test for Romney and Santorum was last Tuesday in Michigan. Arizona also voted, but with Michigan being Romney’s home state a loss there would bring into sharp focus his claim that he is the best candidate with the ability to win a general election. At one point polls showed him losing he was losing badly. Fortunately for him he beat Santorum if only by 3.2%. The slim margin does show weakness, but a win  is a win so now the pressure is fully on Santorum to have a good showing on Super Tuesday. I believe that Santorum is the best candidate of the Republican field for the same reasons he has risen for the second time as a real obstacle to Mitt Romney. Unlike Romney, Santorum   excites his party. His consistent record and message of conservatism has enabled Santorum to make connections and inspire party members. Passion is the key to winning elections and candidates who inspire are the most electable. Romney does not inspire, and his claim to be the only candidate in the Republican field that can beat Obama is not enough. His inability to convince the average conservative Republican voter to believe in him and trust him as a leader and not just as the anti-Obama guy leaves him vulnerable. The competition is good for the Republican Party, which needs excitement to have any shot at beating Obama. The ability to inspire is central to the ability to win an election. Think of Dole and McCain in 1996 and 2008, respectively. Both candidates were past their primes, relatively boring and ran against men who seemed born to inspire, Bill Clinton and Barrack Obama. Inspiration won. Applying  this line of thinking to the two presidential races George Bush Jr. won, certainly he was not the most inspiring orator or visionary, but candidate Al Gore was never able to excite loyal Democrats much less swing voters who needed inspiration to counter the enthusiasm the Right felt at the prospect of returning to the White House. Similarly, John Kerry never articulated a true alternate vision and inspiration to the September 11 inspired Bush. Gore has done much better at inspiration outside of political life, addressing one of the great questions of our time, climate change for which he has won a Nobel Peace Prize. Inspiration wins again. With Dole and McCain, the Republicans   picked the establishment candidate whose turn it was to run as the Party's nominee. It didn't matter if their time had passed, the system did not allow room for that realization. This time, however, the unconventional Tea Party movement is bucking the system. They do not care who is supposed to be up to bat. They care about their principles and winning in that order. They don't want to pick a loser, but they don't want a winner they can't believe in. They wear their beliefs and the emotions attached to those beliefs on their sleeves. So does Rick Santorum. Inspiration may win again. But while candidates need inspiration to win, inspiration alone is not enough. Santorum still faces the same challenges he faced in Iowa: lack of funds and organization. Romney has that over him by far and is still the establishment's choice. Perhaps most crippling obstacle for Santorum is the continuation of Gingrich's failing candidacy. He and to a lesser extent Ron Paul continue to fracture the non-Romney vote. But nationally Santorum's rise comes at the expense of Gingrich and Romney. If Santorum can continue to gain momentum and convince people to support him because they believe, he still won't raise more money than Romney, but he may raise enough. Santorum's greatest strength is his consistent conservatism. A few days ago CNN personality Jack Cafferty commented "....if Mitt Romney wants to defeat Rick Santorum - who is the current flavor of the month in the polls - all he has to do is read some of this stuff aloud at campaign stops." Then he went on to cite items that would hurt Santorum with moderate and liberal voters in a general election, but in fact help him with many social conservatives in the current primaries such as blaming radical feminist for forcing women to work and comparing homosexuality to polygamy and bestiality. Cafferty’s advice is the exact opposite of what would help Romney defeat Santorum. Santorum's unabashed attitude about his conservative views, his appeal as a hard working blue collar guy who believes in free market capitalism and his over the top proselytizing of American exceptionalism is exactly why conservatives find him so appealing. Even as he finds himself explaining or justifying questionable comments surfacing from the past, he benefits from the focus on his conservative credentials.  On the other hand, Romney's past reminds voters why they do not trust him. He cannot attack Santorum's conservative values to gain the favor of Conservatives without stirring up this distrust. He does not have the ability to out- conservative Santorum and the idea that Romney is the only one who has a chance to beat President Obama is losing traction. This puts him in a tough spot. It will be interesting to see if his planned TV ad attack strategy will give Romney more traction. So the question becomes, can Santorum stand strong as a frontrunner? After his lackluster performance in the February 22nd Arizona debate, we have to wonder. Gingrich, Paul and Romney did a good job keeping him on the defensive. We have to see what the polls say over the next few weeks. But most importantly, we look forward to Super Tuesday. That day will reveal whether Santorum or Gingrich will be the last man standing against Romney. No matter what happens, Ron Paul will continue to be in the mix, but he does not threaten the nomination. I forecast Newt will fall to the wayside and the fight will remain between Romney and Santorum. Money and organization vs. inspiration and enthusiasm.
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About Michael T. McPhearson

Currently Michael is executive director of Veterans For Peace and co-chair of the Don't Shoot Coalition, A Saint Louis based coalition that formed in the aftermath of Michael Brown's police killing death in Ferguson, MO. From August 2010 to September 2013, Michael worked as the National Coordinator with United For Peace and Justice. He is a former board member of Veterans For Peace and as well as Executive Director from 2005 to 2010. He works closely with the Newark based People’s Organization for Progress and the Saint Louis centered Organization for Black Struggle. Michel also publishes the Mcphearsonreport.org expressing his views on war and peace, politics, human rights, race and other things. Michael also launched Reclaimthedream.org website as an effort to change the discourse and ignite a new conversation about Dr. Martin Luther King’s message and what it means to live in just and peaceful communities.